Why infrastructure investment decision making needs to consider generational impacts​

Spending cuts announced by chancellor Rachel Reeves in July and prime minister Kier Starmer’s warning on “unpopular decisions” in the upcoming Autumn Budget suggest that infrastructure investment could be in for a rough ride in the short term. While there is a need to balance the books, halting or delaying investment could have far-reaching impacts that extend well beyond those that might first spring to mind.

Bradford is a case in point – it will be put in the spotlight as the UK City of Culture next year but transport infrastructure investment will ensure it continues to shine in the decades beyond 2025 too.

Northern Powerhouse Rail’s proposals to bring new station and rail connections to the city were revived under the Conservative’s Network North plans. However, this has yet to be confirmed by the new government and any further delay means the people of Bradford will feel long-term effects of postponing decisions.

Previous analysis we have undertaken has shown that a new link between Leeds, Bradford and Manchester would more than double the size of the available labour market and unleash the productive economic potential of cities and towns along the route. Bradford is a city and region that already has much to offer and transport investment is critical to ensuring that offer is felt at a regional level and national level too.

Let’s look first in detail at what Bradford stands to gain if funding for the infrastructure improvements is agreed. Their proposals include a new station, a new line to Huddersfield and regeneration of a large swathe of the city centre under the Southern Gateway. Although £54M of development funding is available to Network Rail for the new station this year, there are currently no funding commitments to actually build the station. Network North brought back the theory of the new line to Huddersfield but the new government has yet to confirm what will happen to planned Network North projects.

What has been confirmed is an enhanced line to Leeds, which will significantly improve connectivity within this decade but this investment further underlines the need for a new station. The upgrade will improve travel times and capacity but sending it into the current turn back station will reduce the benefits. What the city needs to thrive is a relocated through station.

Keeping the turnback design will limit the number of trains per hour the station can serve and disadvantage the rest of the North, as well as Bradford, by not maximising capacity across the Pennines. The same arguments being made about building Manchester Piccadilly as an underground through station are true for Bradford too.

But there is much more to be gained for Bradford than extra seats and reduced journey times. Clearly, pushing ahead with the projects would deliver the obvious benefits that come from improved connectivity, which is likely to be how any business case would frame the investment. In those circumstances, against a backdrop of reduced spending, Bradford may lose out. However, if we take a generational, rather a short-term approach, the new station, rail line and Southern Gateway regeneration means Bradford will be able to pay back the costs – and more – in terms of reduced reliance on benefits and lower healthcare costs, as well as wider economic gains. Monetising these improved societal outcomes is notoriously difficult though but doing so for Bradford would clearly demonstrate the value for money the investment offers in generational terms.

Cities like Bradford need investment and I hope it’s year as City of Culture gives it a renewed sense of self confidence from showing the country that it already has a lot to offer. With the right investment, it could be so much more too.

Earlier this summer I sat down with some of our specialists who cover economics, social outcomes, healthcare and environmental issues to consider what the investment might deliver in the longer term. The insights, alongside some of our economic analysis, were eye-opening and present a much broader story than a normal business case approach and create results that could provide a real springboard for Bradford’s entrepreneurial potential.

One comparison that highlights where Bradford is currently, is reviewing the amount spent per year on working age benefits per person of working age. The English average is £1,706 but in Bradford the cost is £1,966 per person. Comparing that with other cities in Yorkshire puts the Bradford costs into context with Leeds at £1,597 and York at £944. Looking at the basics, what both York and Leeds have – among other factors – over Bradford is a long history of good rail connections that have leveraged other investment and regeneration.

The most recent government Indices of Deprivation also shows Bradford is the 5th most income deprived and 6th most employment deprived local authority in England. There is a huge link between health and wealth, which will be key to unlocking Labour’s aspirations to reduce burden on the NHS by preventing sickness. While efforts are already being made in Bradford to address the health inequalities, improving employment opportunities could be a game changer.

However, let’s consider what the future might look like in 30 years’ time if the investment in the new station, rail links and Southern Gateway regeneration go ahead. If the link between health and wealth is true, then the investment attracting higher paid jobs to Bradford and creating wider employment opportunities would naturally address the health inequalities that currently exist. This lower reliance on interventions and lessening dependence on working age benefits means that the transport improvements could effectively pay for themselves if a longer term, generational view is taken.

The risk that Bradford – and other cities and towns that face cuts under the current spending review – faces is that the short-term financial balancing for the nation will have significant long term implications. These year-by-year fiscally focused decisions could delay societal gains for some parts of the UK by decades.

There are difficult decisions for the government ahead but using the conventional business case approach, without considering how to monetise societal gain, means the impact of those decisions may be more disproportionate than intended. Cities like Bradford need investment and I hope it’s year as City of Culture gives it a renewed sense of self confidence from showing the country that it already has a lot to offer. With the right investment, it could be so much more too.

This article was first published by New Civil Engineer on 20 September.

Lisa Littlefair is Leeds City Leader and cities director at Mott MacDonald