Nigeria progresses updated 2060 Calculator to support low carbon development

The Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN), the Federal Ministry of Environment, the UK Government, and the British Embassy Abuja, have jointly updated the Nigeria Energy Calculator (‘NECAL’) for the 2060 planning horizon which is in its final stages of validation with stakeholders. NECAL 2060 is a bespoke energy and emissions model which will assist Nigeria in achieving its climate goals of net zero by 2060.

The update to NECAL, which was Africa’s first emissions Calculator, was funded by the UK Government’s international 2050 Calculator programme. Programme delivery was led by global engineering, management and development consultancy, Mott MacDonald, and a consortium which includes Imperial College London, Climact, and Ricardo.

The NECAL 2060 Calculator will allow users to trial different options for reducing emissions at a faster rate and to build a pathway that meets long-term emission targets to 2060. It is designed to help industries and the energy sector to set greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets and to identify realistic solutions which support the implementation of Nigeria’s international climate commitments, also known as its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).

Nigeria submitted an updated NDC in 2021, which included new mandates to reduce GHG emissions conditionally by 20%, and conditionally by 47% by 2030. The updated NECAL 2060 Calculator reflects the prevailing policies and ongoing efforts in energy supply and demand, and proposes reference scenarios on energy production, consumption, and GHG emissions from 2015 to 2060. The new version includes updates to six sectors – transport, buildings, industry, CO2 removal and gases, electricity and land, and bioenergy and waste.

British high commissioner, Richard Montgomery said: “I am delighted that the Nigeria Energy Calculator model has been updated to 2060 to align with Nigeria’s net zero target – which remains significant for Nigeria, with the expected transformation in the energy sector, agriculture, and transportation of goods and people. The new update shows the options that are available to reduce emissions while matching energy supply and demand, as well as the impacts on energy security, land use, air quality, and so on. We look forward to seeing policymakers and academia continue to use this tool to develop evidence-based policies and build pathways to meet long-term emission targets. This is another strong example of a close UK-Nigeria partnership as we collectively work towards meeting our climate change commitments and limiting global warming.”

Dr Aminu H Isa, energy policy planning and analysis department, at ECN shared: “The updated version of the calculated NECAL 2060 will guide Nigeria to develop all possible pathways to meet its NDC and long-term sustainable economic growth.”

Jessica Brislin-Higgs, senior climate and sustainability consultant at Mott MacDonald and Programme Country Manager for Nigeria, noted: “The updated 2060 Calculator is a sophisticated tool which has a simple, easy-to-use interface for all levels of users. Its use and application by all sectors of society will go far towards changing the trajectory of sustainable development in Nigeria.”

The NECAL 2060 is an open-source, user-friendly model. Unlike other energy models, the tool can be used by governments, stakeholders, academia, and the public alike, including schoolchildren, to inform debate about which policies will be most effective in tackling energy challenges and reducing emissions.