Keep water flowing

Water and hydropower operators can, for the first time, estimate available water resources in almost real time.

Tom Beskeen
Senior associate hydrologist, Mott MacDonald

Worldwide, climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of droughts. Water and hydropower companies face a growing challenge to anticipate river flows and take action to minimise the risk of operational impacts – such as customer supply restrictions or reduced power production – while protecting the environment.

Until now, water and hydropower companies have lacked both the data and the analytical tools to make confident predictions.

But in 2023 one of our major water clients, Anglian Water, in the east of England, implemented our newly developed Water Resources Forecaster. It blends historic, real-time and seasonally predicted weather data to estimate river flow and water availability.

The result is a credible glimpse of weeks and months ahead, helping operators to assess the likelihood of reaching flow or reservoir thresholds at which operations must be adjusted.

The forecaster enables users to compare today’s values with long term ranges, to see how often and by how much conditions have varied. And it uses the catchment-specific seasonal forecasts to swiftly simulate river flows for a range of potential futures. It takes account of potential water losses through evaporation and evapotranspiration, and of gains resulting from rainfall run-off and seepage into groundwater.

The result is a credible glimpse of weeks and months ahead, helping operators to assess the likelihood of reaching flow or reservoir thresholds at which operations must be adjusted to protect the aquatic environment and customer supply.

The forecaster can present different ‘what if’ scenarios based on historical droughts, or by modelling a particular deviation of rainfall from the long term average.

Outputs and insights are visualised via a web interface dashboard, making it easy for different users to read and interpret.

In June 2023, the forecaster received the innovation and research prize in Anglian Water’s supplier awards. For Anglian Water, the forecaster enables better forward planning, which is becoming increasingly important as the water industry seeks to cope with growing customer demand, environmental custodianship and regulatory requirements.