Rapid decarbonisation will call for a radical industry rethink

Reaching net zero electricity in just over five years means that you can’t just tweak what you currently do. Simon Harrison – who co-chaired the National Energy Policy Centre’s (NEPC) report on how to accelerate decarbonisation of the electricity system – wrote an article for Utility Week on the radical approach needed to achieve the ambition.

The incoming Labour government has upped the ambition on decarbonising the electricity system from 2035 to 2030, which might seem like an impossible ask. However, having co-chaired the NEPC report on how to accelerate decarbonisation of the electricity system, I believe there is much than can be done to speed the pace of progress. Nonetheless, it will require government, the industry and the supply chains to adopt the different way of thinking about the problem which we used during the report’s development.

Part of thinking differently saw Sir Patrick Vallance, who had been the government's chief scientific adviser leading on the Covid-19 vaccine development, working with us as co-chair to bring that experience to bear on how we tackled the decarbonisation issue.

Sir Patrick’s approach meant the Vaccines Task Force, supported by the government and industry, achieved something that might normally take 10 years in just 10 months. The question was, could we do the same for electricity by taking a fresh look at the problem? Maybe 10 years to 10 months is too much but I believe we can go a great deal faster.

We originally started out in April with an independent working group established by the Royal Academy of Engineering, which led the project, that drew together 11 people from across the electricity sector and some from the wider infrastructure industry. The original aim was to publish within six months but, with the announcement of the general election, our deadline was brought forward to July to ensure our report was available straightaway to whoever formed the next government.

This acceleration meant our output shifted from developing plans in some detail to creating key principles that the new government and civil service could work with at speed.

The 2035 target set by the previous government was always going to be difficult to get to using existing approaches, but Labour set out a 2030 target in its manifesto which has now been confirmed in the King’s Speech. To reach net zero electricity in just over five years means that you can’t just tweak what you currently do, a more radical approach is needed.

For me, the recommendation in the report that embodies this fundamental shift is the proposal of a delivery task force, accountable to the Prime Minister. This group should be composed of the best engineers, programme managers and other specialists with their actions informed by live data. I am pleased to note that the new government has already announced a “Mission Control” to be led by Chris Stark to fulfil this function.

Among other things, major shifts will also be needed in procurement, government risk appetite and in using regulation as a proactive enabler. Strong political leadership will be needed in accelerating consenting while retaining public support and in transforming what is currently an enormous connections queue into a portfolio of deliverable projects.

The other impact Sir Patrick brought to the work was on how to effectively engage with government. His view was that it was the level of government attention that was key to developing the Covid vaccine and for electricity decarbonisation to be achieved, we needed to do the same. I have worked on many policies and reports over the years, and it is normally hard to get government engaged, but I have been greatly encouraged by the reception to this work so far. With this kind of support from government, real change seems possible.

I believe that the main reason behind this impact is that the report addresses questions at the heart of the new government’s agenda. The ground has also been prepared for it to bring both an ambition for change and realism to the discussion through being engineering-led.

Based on his vaccine experience, Sir Patrick encouraged us to be clear as to what government needed to do differently so that the industry could deliver at much greater pace and scale. This is one of the key learnings of this work that could be applied to any part of the infrastructure industry: we must be much clearer on the ambition and the asks and on why they matter. A confident ask, where everyone is clear on the ambition – accompanied by ministerial authority – was seen as the key requirement.

For the energy decarbonisation report working group, which brought together some of the brightest and best minds in the industry, we found ourselves in unfamiliar territory: even if the blockers could be removed how could a different level of performance be achieved? The independent platform created by the Academy and the NEPC meant we could think about this holistically, unfettered by past practice or the interests of any one organisation.

To reach net zero electricity in just over five years means that you can’t just tweak what you currently do, a more radical approach is needed.

The challenge for the electricity sector now is to respond to the proposals we put forward by being ready to do things differently and to expect change. However, this will not be easy or straightforward.

The utility sector has been set up for incremental change with a focus on minimising consumer bills while maintaining reliable supplies. As the regulator, Ofgem controls the resources the industry has and, as a result, the industry has a resource base and culture that is about moving forward slowly against the performance indicators set by Ofgem. A transformation in this thinking is essential, because there is so much to do.

The regulatory environment is changing but it needs to change more so regulation becomes a key enabler of the transformation. The regulated utilities need to be part of defining the transformation too and responsive to these signals in how they change, so if something is standing in the way of progress, we need to call it out and challenge it. Achieving the ambitions of decarbonisation by 2030 will call for strong industry support alongside strong central, regional and local leadership and governance.

What has become clear to me while working on this report is that, provided this is managed effectively as a programme, going faster on decarbonisation will be cheaper than sticking with slow and steady progress. There is a lot of work to be done but it is not all bad from an affordability point of view.

While I believe that the report creates the building blocks for the industry to make a step change in the pace of decarbonisation, this is just the groundwork, there is detail to work through at speed in the coming weeks and months.

The groundwork set out in the report is essential for the whole of society. Achieving net zero in electricity will underpin the decarbonisation of mobility and heating in the longer term and it is critical that the industry grasps this opportunity today.

Read the article in Utility Week.